Market Intelligence
Verified climate-to-market intelligence, every trading day.
AI4Water turns global hydroclimate data — drought, soil moisture, ENSO, crop exposure — into daily, verified market
intelligence. A macro-regime committee, a multi-agent analyst committee, and a financial foundation model turn the
world's water into trading context: where supply chains break, which commodities are exposed, and what the risk
posture should be. Every figure carries provenance; every model version is disclosed.
Daily Report — decision-ready
The full brief every trading day: macro-regime posture, per-ticker committee memo (Buy / Hold / Overweight) with
reasoning, Kronos commodity forecasts (corn, wheat, soy, sugar, coffee, cocoa), drought-crop exposure, and combined
advice — historical + predicted.
€90/month
Verified Data — you decide
The same verified dataset without advice: structured JSON (macro regime, committee decisions, Kronos forecasts,
drought-crop exposure) with provenance — sources, timestamps, staleness flags. For analysts and AI agents that run
their own reasoning.
€30/month
Agent API — per request
For AI agents: GET /v1/daily returns the report or the raw data with full provenance. Machine
payments via x402 (USDC) or Stripe MPP — no human in the loop.
$2 report · $0.50 data
Founding offer: the first 10 clients lock €30/month for life on any tier, in
exchange for honest feedback that shapes the product. Payments go live shortly — join the founding list via the
contact form or email
[email protected].
Sample brief — 14 Aug 2026 (condensed)
NVDA — Buy. Bullish momentum, 0.6 PEG, 17.6 forward P/E, ~75% gross margins, Blackwell cycle; staged
pullback references near $217 and $206.50 ahead of 26 Aug earnings; inventory growth and priced-for-perfection risk
noted as caveats.
AAPL — Hold (bridge) / Overweight (audit). ~48.6% gross margin, $25B quarterly buyback support; bearish
MACD and ~35x P/E argue for patience; support $293–297 rather than chasing near $305. Both outcomes disclosed — the
two runs disagreed, neither was cherry-picked.
MSFT — Overweight. FY2026 revenue growth 17.8%, 40.3% net margins, Azure/AI capex; RSI near 71.8 creates
pullback risk — support $450–465 preferred over momentum chasing.
Operational disclosure: requested Gemini 2.5 Pro, actually ran Gemini 3 Flash Preview; FRED macro data used
fallback inputs (key unavailable); no numeric confidence scores invented. Safety boundary: research only, no trades
executed.
Track Record
Transparent by design.
Every decision is recorded with its realised outcome against the benchmark (SPY) — including
the mistakes and the lessons learned. Paper trading, research only: the system never executes an order.
2017–2024 backtest39.9% strategy · 32.3% benchmark
Sharpe 1.24vs 0.59 benchmark
Max drawdown 12.6%vs 41.7% benchmark
Live paper ledger32 recorded outcomes · Jul 15 → Aug 13, 2026
| Date | Ticker | Decision | Result | vs SPY | Horizon |
|---|
| 2026-07-15 | NVDA | Hold | -4.3% | -2.7% | 3d |
| 2026-07-28 | NVDA | Buy | +4.9% | +2.6% | 4d |
| 2026-08-03 | NVDA | Buy | +2.6% | +0.8% | 1d |
| 2026-08-03 | MSFT | Overweight | +1.1% | -0.7% | 1d |
| 2026-08-03 | AAPL | Hold | +2.0% | +0.2% | 1d |
| 2026-08-04 | AAPL | Overweight | +0.5% | +0.7% | 1d |
| 2026-08-04 | MSFT | Overweight | -1.1% | -0.9% | 1d |
| 2026-08-04 | NVDA | Buy | +3.4% | +3.6% | 1d |
| 2026-08-05 | MSFT | Overweight | +2.5% | +2.7% | 1d |
| 2026-08-05 | NVDA | Buy | -0.1% | +0.0% | 1d |
| 2026-08-05 | AAPL | Hold | +0.5% | +0.6% | 1d |
| 2026-08-06 | MSFT | Overweight | +0.0% | -0.6% | 1d |
| 2026-08-06 | NVDA | Overweight | +2.3% | +1.7% | 1d |
| 2026-08-06 | AAPL | Hold | +0.3% | -0.3% | 1d |
| 2026-08-07 | MSFT | Overweight | +1.2% | +1.2% | 1d |
| 2026-08-07 | AAPL | Overweight | -1.6% | -1.6% | 1d |
| 2026-08-07 | NVDA | Buy | -2.9% | -2.8% | 1d |
| 2026-08-10 | AAPL | Overweight | -1.1% | -0.8% | 1d |
| 2026-08-10 | NVDA | Buy | -0.0% | +0.3% | 1d |
| 2026-08-10 | MSFT | Overweight | -0.4% | -0.1% | 1d |
| 2026-08-11 | NVDA | Buy | +3.0% | +2.8% | 1d |
| 2026-08-11 | MSFT | Overweight | -2.3% | -2.5% | 1d |
| 2026-08-11 | AAPL | Hold | -0.9% | -1.1% | 1d |
| 2026-08-12 | NVDA | Buy | +0.5% | -0.2% | 1d |
| 2026-08-12 | AAPL | Overweight | +1.0% | +0.3% | 1d |
| 2026-08-12 | MSFT | Overweight | +0.9% | +0.2% | 1d |
| 2026-08-13 | NVDA | Overweight | -0.1% | +0.1% | 1d |
| 2026-08-13 | AAPL | Hold | +0.2% | +0.4% | 1d |
| 2026-08-13 | MSFT | Overweight | -0.3% | -0.1% | 1d |
| 2026-08-13 | MSFT | Overweight | -0.3% | -0.1% | 1d |
| 2026-08-13 | NVDA | Buy | -0.1% | +0.1% | 1d |
| 2026-08-13 | AAPL | Hold | +0.2% | +0.4% | 1d |
Ledger stats: 17 of 32 outcomes with positive alpha (53% win rate); average realised alpha +0.13% per outcome vs
SPY; best +3.6%, worst −2.8%. The full ledger including the written reflections — lessons encoded after each
decision — is available on request.
Methodology. Macro-regime committee (physical/causal forcing over raw autocorrelated signals), multi-agent
analyst committee with full-state audits, Kronos financial foundation model for commodity forecasting, and
AI4Water's global hydroclimate data for drought-crop exposure. Model versions and data sources are disclosed in
every brief. Research output — not financial advice. Nothing here is an offer to buy or sell securities.
